Gold has shown some signs of life this month after dropping in May following announcements of a possible summer Federal Reserve rate hike, and traders believe that the climb will continue and there’s one group of stocks that will be a key beneficiary.
The gold miners ETF (GDX) surged 9 percent Friday after the release of a weak jobs number for May although it was down slightly midmorning Monday. Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, sees the ETF surging even higher, especially as he believes the U.S. central bank will actually hold off on a summer rate hike.
“Gold is reflecting the Fed’s complacency here going into these summer months. I don’t see a Fed rate hike,” he said Friday on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” “That should put a top on the dollar and push gold higher.”
Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, believes gold is also headed for another rally, but its determinant won’t just be the dollar.
“Even if the dollar does rise, even if the Fed does raise rates a little bit, I think it’s going to create turbulence in the equity market and the sell-off in the equity market, the risk aversion, is going to reviews help gold,” he said. “When you look at gold miners, you can essentially look at them as options underlying, which is the gold itself. And the most levered companies are usually the ones that are the best bets.”
Schlossberg also points to China, a major gold buyer, as a key determinant of the precious metal’s future levels as the country’s yuan continues to weaken. But should gold maintain its current levels, the GDX will be a solid buy into the summer months, he said.
“Gold is at a critical juncture right now, holding that $1,200 support,” he said. “If it can hold that, then it will begin to rally and most importantly, if gold can break the $1,300 to the upside, it’s just a screaming buy for the gold miners.”
Gold futures continued rising Monday morning, hitting $1,247 as it returned to levels from two weeks ago.